I think the likelihood is very high.As of 6:00 p.m. on March 1, 1,694 cases of the new coronavirus had been diagnosed in Italy, an increase of 566 cases over the previous day, or nearly 50 percent in a single day. It is important to know that as of the evening of February 24th, there were only 232 confirmed cases of neo-coronavirus in Italy, a seven-fold increase in just one week.

So what caused the spike in infections? Italy actually took measures such as sealing off the city back in January, but then a mistake led to a spike in cases.In a hospital in the Lombardy region of Italy, where the epidemic is very serious, a mistake in the operation of their "patient number one" produced an error.This "patient number one" should have been treated as a suspected case in the first place. This "Patient No. 1" should have been treated as a suspected case in the first place and tested for the new coronavirus as soon as possible. But this "Patient No. 1" was not tested until he had been to the doctor as many as four times. What is even more ridiculous is that he spent 36 hours in the Cordonio Hospital before being isolated, and even after the diagnosis was made, he did not inform the relevant people of the risk of infection. Later this"Patient number one has infected 13 people, and the outbreak has begun to accelerate.。

On the other hand, despite Italy's move to seal off the city, theSome citizens in the closed towns were not wearing masks, and they took to the squares with banners in their hands, demanding that the Government "return freedom". A state of ignorance was displayed in the face of the epidemic.

And another thing is that Italians are passionate, bold.They have a unique social etiquette of shaking hands, kissing and hugging each other in person-to-person contact. Obviously this etiquette increases viral spread and is very out of place. But there are still a lot of people who haven't changed their behavior.

Faced with the increasingly serious situation of the epidemic, Italy has also escalated the prevention and control once again in the past two days, banning all gatherings and all competitions.Even so, I personally feel that the Italian epidemic is still in a period of rapid rise, with a more than ninety percent chance of the number of new coronaviruses topping 5,000.

As of 5:00 p.m. local time on February 29, there were 1,128 confirmed cases of new coronavirus infections in Italy. This is only 10 days since Italy reported "patient number one". From the outbreak of the time point of view is in February 21, since then the number of new cases every day continuously exceeded 100 cases and 200 cases mark. (

Looking at the trend graph, the epidemic seems to be getting worse and if it continues at this rate it shouldn't be hard to break 5,000.

1. From the source of discoveryItaly's "patient number one" was found in the small town of Codogno, about 60 kilometers from Milan, but so far it has not been possible to find "patient number zero" who transmitted the virus to "patient number one". Patient Zero", who transmitted the virus to "Patient One", has not yet been found. In other words, the route of transmission is unknown. Italian scientist Dr. Galli has found that the virus is not related to China through his research on the new coronavirus strain in Italy. This raises concerns about how "Patient One" was infected.

2. From the Italian regionThe worst areas of the epidemic are the Lombardy and Veneto regions, which are densely populated and economically active regions of Italy, and also have frequent interactions with European countries. The capital city of Milan is also the financial center of Italy and one of the world's fashion centers. This has allowed the epidemic to spread throughout Europe.

3. From the point of view of the means of transmissionThe rapid increase in the number of confirmed cases in Italy from just three before February 21 to the current 1,128 just a few days later suggests thatThe outbreak in Italy has already seen community transmission, which has made it more difficult to control the outbreak.

4, from the point of view of preventive and control measures, the Italian people in the early stages of the epidemic did not take strict protective measures, according to Milan, Italy, the New Europe Overseas Chinese Newspaper editor-in-chief Wu Jie, February 26 also saw only one-tenth of the Italian stores closed, and shopkeepers in the stores did not wear masks. So far Italy has not set up a joint defense and control mechanism like our country.

However, the epidemic situation would be much improved if Italy were to intervene strongly, drawing on our experience.

Welcome to like, forward, leave a message, I am physician Yang Hao, focusing on common diseases, multiple diseases diagnosis and treatment, chronic disease management, health science. If you want to know more about medical knowledge, welcome to pay attention to this headline!

At the current rate of development, it's a foregone conclusion that Italy will surpass 5,000. A mathematical fit to the historical data on the Wuhan outbreak, with Italy and South Korea following, is very bleak.

Both countries are now in the early stages of the outbreak, with the epidemic developing at a stage equivalent to the days when the closure of Wuhan began. However, in reality, comprehensive virus testing in these countries has not yet been launched, and a large number of hidden infected people, especially asymptomatic ones, have yet to be discovered. This status quo of not knowing the enemy situation is the worst.

With reference to the Wuhan experience, the infections in Italy and South Korea were completely uncontrolled, with widespread infections occurring days before. The number of existing infections is certainly not the number of existing tests. Therefore, the number of test kits is quite important, as well as the number of isolation beds. Korea has already seen some patients waiting to die at home, which is similar to the situation in Wuhan in the early stages of the epidemic. Whether or not they can withstand this wave is the only way to judge whether or not the future epidemics in Italy and Korea can be controlled.

I think it is an inevitable trend that the number of patients in Italy has exceeded 5,000, according to the latest data, the cumulative number of diagnosed cases in Italy has reached 3,927, and is about to break 4,000. And from the phenomenon of the Italian people running to the street "jumping" frequently in recent days, the Italian government wants to control the number of people within 5000, it is absolutely impossible.

Many people may find it unbelievable that people are still coming out to "jump" when the epidemic is getting worse, but there are many cases in Italy where people refuse to wear masks and are invited to come out to "jump". According to relevant reports, on February 27, 11 mayors in Italy jointly petitioned Italian Prime Minister Antonio Conte, requesting him to lift the closure order, or else the major cities, where tourism is an important source of income, would suffer incalculable economic losses.

The city of Florence then introduced a special benefit during the epidemic - starting on the 28th, all visitors to the city of Florence would receive three days of free museums. At the same time, many people gathered on the streets of Milan and other major cities to drink, and even more bizarrely, there were citizens who united in the square, pulling a huge banner with the words "Return Freedom" to resist the local government's act of sealing off the towns, and in the rally, none of the citizens wore masks.

Recently, the Swiss congresswoman Blauch, who was frantically reproduced on the Internet, was considered by the Speaker of the National Chamber of the Swiss Federal Assembly to be disruptive because she insisted on wearing a mask to enter the meeting, and was strongly urged to remove the mask or else be expelled from the scene. However, a similar incident also happened in Italy. On February 26th, Italian MP Matteo Orso was questioned by others while attending a meeting and was strongly condemned for wearing a mask that would only cause panic among the people, so much so that Matteo was forced to remove his mask. Matteo was so angry when he spoke that he slammed the microphone afterward.

In addition, a reporter recently interviewed that many Italian people in response to questions about the epidemic actually angrily denounced the business, that is some businesses in order to make huge profits and use the epidemic as a means of speculation. One woman even claimed that she didn't need to wear a mask in the subway or bus where there was a lot of traffic, and that she could just say her prayers. And on March 4, the Italian Colosseum still has tourists wearing masks to visit.

Although the Italian government has now also taken a number of tough measures to ensure that the rate of spread of the epidemic is reduced, online reports indicate that the Milan government has recently decided to postpone the upcoming Milan PK Gena match at the San Siro stadium in Milan, Italy, until May 13th. On March 4, local time, the Italian government has also decided to close all schools in the country until mid-March. And in the early morning of March 5, the Italian government officially announced that due to the epidemic, all sports events in Italy will be cleared until April 3rd.

But since the number of confirmed diagnoses in Italy is about to break 4,000 (maybe by tomorrow's update), it's going to be tough to keep the number under 5,000.